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U-shaped relationship of estimated glucose disposal rate with cardiovascular disease risk in cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0–3: a population-based prospective study
Diabetology & Metabolic Syndrome volume 17, Article number: 85 (2025)
Abstract
Background
Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) syndrome is characterized by the interrelatedness of chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and metabolic disorders. The relationship between estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) and CVD risk in CKM syndrome remains unclear.
Methods
We analyzed data from 7,849 participants aged ≥ 45 years in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The eGDR was calculated using waist circumference, hypertension, and HbA1c. Cox regression and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression analyses examined the association between eGDR and CVD (stroke or cardiac events).
Results
During a mean follow-up of 8.29 ± 1.67 years, among 7,849 participants (mean age 62.4 ± 8.7 years; 52.82% male), 1,946 CVD events occurred, including 1,504 cardiac events and 663 strokes. CKM stages 0–3 comprised 492 (6.27%), 1,404 (17.89%), 5,462 (69.59%), and 491 (6.26%) of participants, respectively. A U-shaped relationship between eGDR and CVD risk was identified (turning point: 11.82 mg/kg/min). Below this turning point, each unit increase in eGDR decreased CVD risk by 12% (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.90, P < 0.0001); above it, each unit increase raised the risk by 19% (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04–1.37, P = 0.0135).
Conclusion
Our findings reveal a U-shaped relationship between eGDR and CVD risk in CKM syndrome stages 0–3. A higher or lower eGDR was associated with an increased CVD risk.
Introduction
In October 2023, the American Heart Association (AHA) coined the term Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic (CKM) syndrome to describe an emerging health concern characterized by the interrelatedness of chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and metabolic disorders such as diabetes and obesity [1, 2]. CVD, metabolic disorders, and renal diseases affect 9-11%, 13%, and 15% of the population in the United States, respectively [3, 4]. Furthermore, 33–40% of adults suffer from CKM syndrome [1, 2, 5]. The classification of CKM syndrome ranging from stage 0 (absence of risk factors) to stage 4 (clinical CVD)—provides a framework for understanding the progression of the syndrome and its implications for patient management [1, 2, 6]. CKM syndrome can harm all organs, however, it is most commonly associated with CVD [1, 2]. Diabetes affects 20% of patients with heart failure, and it raises the chance of developing CVD by 2–4 times [7, 8]. CKD affects around 50% of people with heart failure [9]. The AHA prioritizes preclinical testing in the CKM staging paradigm, emphasizing the necessity of preventing CVD events in stages 0 to 3 [1, 2]. To avoid progression from stages 0–3 of CKM syndrome, it is crucial to address renal, cardiovascular, and metabolic components as a unified system [9,10,11], as evidence suggests that CVD is the leading cause of clinical burden [12].
Recent studies have further highlighted the complex interplay between metabolic parameters and cardiovascular outcomes [13, 14]. Based on waist circumference (WC), hypertension, and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) was developed and shown to be a reliable indicator of insulin resistance [15, 16]. The eGDR is perfect for evaluating insulin resistance in a broad patient population since it has been demonstrated to be more accurate than the euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp gold standard technique [16, 17]. Several previous studies found that eGDR was significantly associated with CVD in the general population [18], CVD under circadian rhythm and different metabolic states [19], CVD among non-diabetic individuals [20], mortality and risk of stroke in diabetic people [21], stroke in the general population [22]. However, the relationship between the eGDR and CVD in CKM syndrome patients is unknown.
Given the significance of CKM syndrome in the development of CVD, we aimed to evaluate the association between eGDR and risk of CVD (stroke or cardiac events) in individuals with CKM syndrome stages 0–3 based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).
Methods
Data source and study population
The CHARLS provided the data used in this investigation. Chinese individuals 45 years of age and older are the focus of the nationwide cohort research CHARLS, which conducted surveys periodically between 2011 and 2020 [23]. Using a multi-stage stratified probability-proportional-to-size sampling technique, this study recruited individuals from 28 provinces and 150 counties or districts, both urban and rural [23]. Previous publications have thoroughly described the design and cohort characteristics. The CHARLS study was approved by the Peking University Institutional Review Board (IRB00001052-11015) and complied with the Declaration of Helsinki guidelines. Before participating in the CHARLS study, each participant gave written informed consent. All fieldwork personnel in the CHARLS project underwent professional, methodical training and used standardized questionnaires to conduct in-person interviews. Participants questioned in 2011 and 2012 served as the baseline for this study, and they were subsequently contacted in 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020.
The inclusion and exclusion criteria are outlined in the flowchart (Fig. 1): (1) participants under 45 years of age or with missing information. (2) participants with CVD or missing information at baseline. (3) participants with less than two years of follow-up. (4) participants with missing information on WC, hypertension, and HbA1c. (5) participants with extreme values (more or less than three standard deviations above the mean) of eGDR. As a result, the analysis comprised 7,849 people in total.
Data collection
For this study, the following information was gathered:
-
(i)
Demographic data: age, gender, education level, marital status, and living place.
-
(ii)
Lifestyle data: drinking status, smoking status, self-report diabetes, self-report hypertension.
-
(iii)
Body measurements: WC, weight, height, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and diastolic blood pressure (DBP).
-
(iv)
Laboratory test data: White blood cell (WBC), platelets, C-reactive protein (CRP), Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1C), fasting plasma glucose (FBG), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (Scr), uric acid (UA), triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c).
Diabetes was defined as having an FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L (126 mg/dL) or HbA1c ≥ 6.5% at baseline, or through self-report [24]. Participants were classified as hypertensive if SBP ≥ 130 mmHg or DBP ≥ 80 mmHg at baseline or through self-report hypertension [1]. MetS is characterized by three or more of the following [1]: (1) HDL-c < 40 mg/dL for men or < 50 mg/dL for women; (2) TG ≥ 150 mg/dL; (3) WC ≥ 80 cm for women or ≥ 90 cm for men; (4) FBG ≥ 100 mg/dL; and (5) hypertension. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formula was used to determine the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for individuals of “Asian origin” [25]. Then, using Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), it was categorized into CKD stages [1]. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD10) score of ≥ 10 was used to characterize depression [26].
Variables
eGDR
The current investigation used the previously reported formula to compute the eGDR (mg/kg/min):
eGDR = 21.158-(0.09 * WC)–(3.407 * hypertension)–(0.551 * HbA1c)
[WC = waist circumference (cm), hypertension (yes = 1/no = 0), and HbA1c = HbA1c (%)] [15].
CVD diagnosis
The study focused on the incidence of CVD throughout the follow-up phase (Waves 2–5). To obtain past CVD diagnoses (cardiac events or stroke), a standardized question was asked: “Have you been told by a doctor that you have been diagnosed with heart failure, coronary heart disease, angina, heart attack, or other heart problems?” or “Have you been told by a doctor that you have been diagnosed with stroke?” This aligns with prior similar studies [27, 28]. The CHARLS study team ensured data trustworthiness by implementing strict quality control techniques for recording and verification [23].
CKM stage 0–3 definition
The stages of CKM syndrome were defined based on the criteria established by AHA Presidential Advisory [1]. Stage 0 is characterized by the lack of CKM risk factors: normal lipid profile, normal blood pressure, normal WC, normal BMI, and no signs of either CVD or CKD. Stage 1 is distinguished by excess or dysfunctional adiposity: BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2, WC ≥ 80 cm in women or ≥ 90 cm in men, FBG ≥ 100–124 mg/dL or HbA1c (5.7 − 6.4%), without CKD or other metabolic risk factors. Stage 2 includes moderate to high-risk CKD or metabolic risk factors such as diabetes, MetS, hypertension, or hypertriglyceridemia (≥ 135 mg/dL). Stage 3 refers to subclinical CVD in individuals with CKD, metabolic risk factors, or excess/dysfunctional adiposity [1].
Missing data handling
Missing data were expressed as N (%). They were drinking status (6, 0.08%), smoking status (1, 0.01%), BMI (63, 0.80%), WBC (156, 1.99%), platelet (153, 1.95%), BUN (106, 1.35%), FBG (119, 1.52%), Scr (122, 1.55%), TC (112, 1.43%), TG (110, 1.40%), HDL-c (105, 1.34%), LDL-c (120, 1.53%), CRP (105, 1.34%), UA (105, 1.34%). Missing covariate data were handled using multiple imputations [29]. Missing data analysis was carried out under the presumption that the data was missing at random [30].
Statistical analysis
Continuous data were shown as either means ± standard deviations or medians (interquartile ranges), and categorical variables were shown as N(%). Using one-way ANOVA for continuous data and chi-squared testing for categorical data, the differences after the eGDR quartiles were examined.
Confounding variables were chosen based on changes in impact estimates of greater than 10% or their correlation with the outcomes of interest [31]. Due to the collinearity, TC was excluded by confounding factors. We controlled for the following variables after taking into account the clinical importance and prior research: age, gender, education level, marital status, living place, drinking status, smoking status, depression, WBC, platelets, BUN, FBG, Scr, TG, HDL-c, LDL-c, CRP, and UA. The association between eGDR and CVD was examined using multivariate Cox regression models. Stratified analyses were conducted to assess the consistency of associations across different subgroups, including CKM stages, gender, age groups, drinking status and smoking status. To explore potential non-linear relationships, we performed restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression and threshold effect analysis using a two-piecewise Cox regression model. The turning point was determined by selecting the point that yielded the maximum likelihood value [32]. The likelihood ratio test was used to compare the fitness of the threshold model versus the linear model [32]. Additionally, to confirm the robustness of the findings, sensitivity analyses were performed on the Cardiac events and Stroke outcomes. Moreover, by estimating E-value, we evaluated the possibility of undetected confounding between eGDR and CVD [33].
All results comply with the STROBE statement [31]. Results were presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Statistical significance was set at P < 0.05. All analyses were performed using R software (version 4.2.0) and EmpowerStats (version 4.2).
Results
Characteristics
Table 1 presents the baseline characteristics of 7,849 participants (males: 4,146, 52.82%; females: 3,703, 47.18%) with a mean follow-up of 8.29 ± 1.67 years. Figure 2 shows that eGDR follows a normal distribution, with a mean value of 9.12 ± 2.23 mg/kg/min. Across eGDR quartiles (Q1-Q4), we observed significant trends in participant characteristics. Age decreased from Q1 to Q4, while the proportion of females increased. Metabolic parameters showed consistent improvements with increasing eGDR: TC, BMI, TG, and CRP decreased, while HDL-c increased. The prevalence of comorbidities also showed marked differences: hypertension, MetS, diabetes, and dyslipidemia decreased significantly. The distribution of CKM stages varied significantly across eGDR quartiles. Q1 and Q2 were predominantly stage 2 (100% and 96.23%, respectively), while Q3 and Q4 showed more diverse distributions, with Q4 having the highest proportions in stages 0 (20.17%) and 1 (25.47%). CKM staging showed 492 (6.27%), 1,404 (17.89%), 5,462 (69.59%), and 491 (6.26%) participants in stages 0–3, respectively. During follow-up, 1,504 (19.16%) cardiac events, 663 (8.45%) strokes, and 1,946 (24.79%) CVD events occurred (Table 1).
Multivariate analyses
The association between eGDR and CVD risk was analyzed in participants with CKM stages 0–3 (Table 2). Each unit increase in eGDR was associated with a 12% reduced risk of CVD (HR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.89, p < 0.0001), remaining consistent after full adjustment (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.87–0.91, p < 0.0001). In quartile analysis (Q1: 2.32–7.17 mg/kg/min as reference), the fully adjusted HRs were 0.73 (95% CI: 0.65–0.82), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.53–0.68), and 0.50 (95% CI: 0.44–0.58) for Q2-Q4 respectively, demonstrating a significant inverse relationship (P for trend < 0.0001).
Stratified analyses
Stratified analyses by CKM stages showed that higher eGDR was consistently associated with lower CVD risk, particularly in Stage 2 (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.85–0.90, P < 0.0001). Similar effect sizes were observed in other stages, with no significant interaction effect (P for interaction = 0.7528), indicating that the protective association of eGDR against CVD was consistent across CKD stages. The inverse association between eGDR and CVD risk remained consistent across gender, age groups, drinking status and smoking status (Table 3).
Non-linear analyses
Restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a nonlinear U-shaped association between eGDR and CVD risk (Fig. 3). Threshold effect analysis revealed a nonlinear relationship between eGDR and CVD risk (likelihood ratio test, P < 0.001) (Table 4). The nonlinear model identified a turning point at eGDR = 11.82 mg/kg/min. Below this turning point, each unit increase in eGDR was associated with a 12% decrease in CVD risk (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.90, P < 0.0001). However, above the turning point, the association reversed, with each unit increase corresponding to a 19% increase in CVD risk (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04–1.37, P = 0.0135).
Sensitivity analyses
Similar to CVD, cardiac events showed a non-linear relationship with eGDR, with a turning point at 11.79 mg/kg/min (Table 4; Fig. 4). Below this turning point, eGDR was protective (HR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.91, P < 0.001), while above it, the risk increased (HR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.07–1.44, P = 0.0034). In contrast, eGDR demonstrated a linear protective effect against stroke (HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81–0.88, P < 0.001) (Table 4).
We employed E-values to estimate the robustness of probable unmeasured confounders in the data, and our results remained consistent unless an unmeasured confounder had an HR greater than 1.51.
Discussion
In this large-scale prospective cohort study (CHARLS) involving 7,850 participants with a mean follow-up of 8.29 years, we observed a non-linear U-shaped relationship between eGDR and CVD risk in CKM syndrome stages 0–3. Below the turning point of 11.82 mg/kg/min, each unit increase in eGDR was associated with a 12% decrease in CVD risk (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.90, P < 0.0001), while above this turning point, each unit increase corresponded to a 19% increase in CVD risk (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04–1.37, P = 0.0135).
Our findings on the association between eGDR and CVD align with several recent studies while offering unique insights. Ren et al., using the same CHARLS cohort, found that each unit increase in eGDR reduced CVD risk by 13% (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.85–0.89) [18], consistent with our observed 12% risk reduction below the threshold (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.86–0.90). However, our study goes further by examining this relationship within CKM syndrome stages 0–3 and identifying a U-shaped relationship. Similarly, Zhang et al.‘s nationwide study reported an 11% lower risk of CVD per unit increase in eGDR (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.87–0.91) [20], though without identifying a threshold. Zabala et al. found lower eGDR linked to increased stroke risk in diabetes patients (HR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.80–0.88) [21], consistent with our stroke-specific analysis (HR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.81–0.88). Lu et al. similarly reported the protective effect of higher eGDR in stroke patients (HR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.82–0.90) [22], though in a different population. Our findings complement Karakayalı et al.‘s work [13, 14] on metabolic parameters and CVD, emphasizing the importance of metabolic markers in CVD risk assessment. Our study uniquely examines the eGDR-CVD relationship across CKM stages and identifies a threshold effect, suggesting that while insulin sensitivity generally protects against CVD, extremely high levels (≥ 11.82 mg/kg/min) may increase risk (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04–1.37).
This study makes several novel contributions to the literature. First, it is the first to examine the relationship between eGDR and CVD risk specifically within the newly defined CKM syndrome framework, providing crucial insights for this emerging clinical paradigm. Second, we identified a previously unreported U-shaped relationship with a specific turning point at 11.82 mg/kg/min, offering clinicians a concrete threshold for risk stratification. Third, our comprehensive analysis across CKM stages 0–3 provides valuable guidance for early intervention strategies, aligning with the AHA’s recent emphasis on preventing progression in early CKM stages.
The observed U-shaped relationship between eGDR and CVD risk can be explained by the interplay between insulin sensitivity, metabolic health, and cardiovascular physiology. Lower eGDR levels, indicating higher insulin resistance, increase CVD risk through mechanisms such as systemic inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, which promote atherosclerosis [34, 35]. The reversal of protection may reflect the adverse effects of excessive insulin sensitivity or related metabolic disturbances. Very high eGDR levels could indicate hyperinsulinemia, a condition associated with increased sympathetic activity, sodium retention, and vascular stress [36]. Alternatively, extremely high eGDR might reflect underlying conditions like malnutrition or sarcopenia, both linked to elevated cardiovascular risk [37, 38].
Our findings of a U-shaped relationship between eGDR and CVD risk suggest the need for differentiated treatment approaches. For patients with low eGDR (< 11.82 mg/kg/min), interventions should focus on improving insulin sensitivity through lifestyle modifications, weight management, and appropriate pharmacological interventions. However, for patients with very high eGDR (> 11.82 mg/kg/min), careful monitoring and investigation of underlying conditions such as malnutrition or sarcopenia may be warranted. This personalized approach to treatment based on eGDR levels could help optimize cardiovascular outcomes across the CKM syndrome spectrum.
Our stratified analysis across CKM stages 0–3 reveals important clinical implications for personalized cardiovascular risk management. The consistent protective association between eGDR and CVD risk, particularly significant in Stage 2 (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.85–0.90), suggests that insulin sensitivity monitoring could be valuable across all CKM stages. This finding extends beyond previous studies that typically focused on specific disease states, offering a comprehensive perspective on the CKM syndrome spectrum. The identification of a turning point at 11.82 mg/kg/min for eGDR provides clinicians with a specific target for risk stratification and intervention. This novel finding suggests that while improving insulin sensitivity is generally beneficial, extremely high eGDR levels may paradoxically increase cardiovascular risk, necessitating a more nuanced approach to metabolic management. The study’s comprehensive examination across CKM stages 0–3 offers valuable insights for early intervention strategies, particularly important given the AHA’s recent emphasis on preventing progression in early CKM stages. Our results support the integration of eGDR monitoring into routine clinical practice as a cost-effective tool for cardiovascular risk assessment, especially in resource-limited settings where more sophisticated diagnostic methods may be unavailable. The observed U-shaped relationship also highlights the need for personalized treatment approaches, suggesting that optimal eGDR targets may vary among different patient populations.
Our study possesses several notable strengths. First, it pioneers the examination of eGDR and CVD within the context of CKM syndrome stages 0–3, offering valuable insights into this newly defined clinical framework. Second, our large cohort of 7,849 participants with an 8.29-year follow-up period ensures robust statistical power. The use of the CHARLS database, with its standardized procedures and rigorous quality control, ensures high data reliability. Third, our sophisticated analytical approach, incorporating restricted cubic spline regression and threshold effect analysis, revealed a novel U-shaped relationship between eGDR and CVD risk. Furthermore, comprehensive sensitivity analyses and extensive control for potential confounders strengthen our findings’ validity.
Several limitations of this study should be acknowledged. First, our study excluded participants under 45 years of age and those with baseline CVD, limiting the generalizability of our findings to younger populations and individuals with established CVD. Second, as this study utilized data exclusively from the CHARLS cohort in China, caution should be exercised when extrapolating these findings to other ethnic populations, as genetic and environmental factors may influence the relationship between eGDR and cardiovascular outcomes. Third, the observational nature of our study precludes establishing causal relationships between eGDR and CVD risk, despite the robust associations observed. Fourth, while we adjusted for numerous potential confounders, unmeasured confounding factors such as dietary habits, physical activity levels, and medication adherence could not be fully accounted for, although our E-value analysis suggests that such unmeasured confounding would need to be substantial to nullify our findings.
Conclusion
In this large-scale prospective cohort study (CHARLS) involving 7,850 participants with a mean follow-up of 8.29 years, we observed a non-linear U-shaped relationship between eGDR and CVD risk in CKM syndrome stages 0–3. Further multicenter studies with different ethnicities are needed to validate the results of this study.
Data availability
Data are available in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study repository [http://charls.pku.edu.cn].
Abbreviations
- CKM:
-
Cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic
- CKD:
-
Chronic kidney disease
- CVD:
-
Cardiovascular diseases
- AHA:
-
American heart association
- eGDR:
-
Estimate glucose disposal rate
- WC:
-
Waist circumference
- HbA1c:
-
Hemoglobin A1c
- BMI:
-
Body mass index
- WBC:
-
White blood cell
- FBG:
-
Fasting plasma glucose
- BMI:
-
Body mass index
- SD:
-
Standard deviations
- SBP:
-
Systolic blood pressure
- DBP:
-
Diastolic blood pressure
- TC:
-
Total cholesterol
- TG:
-
Triglyceride
- HDL-c:
-
High-density lipoprotein cholesterol
- LDL-c:
-
Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol
- BUN:
-
Blood urea nitrogen
- Scr:
-
Serum creatinine
- CRP:
-
C-reactive protein
- UA:
-
Uric acid
- MetS:
-
Metabolic syndrome
- ANOVA:
-
Analysis of variance
- RCS:
-
Restricted cubic spline
- HR:
-
Hazard ratio
- CI:
-
Confidence interval
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Acknowledgements
The authors appreciate all of the CHALRS members for their efforts, as well as the participants who provided data.
Funding
This work was supported by Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (No. SZSM202211016), Shenzhen Fund for Guangdong Provincial High-level Clinical Key Specialties (No. SZGSP006), Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital Clinical Research Fund of Guangdong Province High-level Hospital Construction Project (Grant No.20223357008, No.2023xgyj3357003).
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X.M.L: Research conceptualization, statistical analysis and manuscript drafting. K.L and X.H.L: Data cleansing and statistical analyses. S.Q. G, Z.M.X and Y.L: Manuscript revisions and research designs. All authors collaborated on the article and cleared the presented version.
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The study involving human participants was approved by the Peking University Institutional Review Board (IRB00001052-11015) and complied with the Declaration of Helsinki guidelines. Each participant gave written informed consent.
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Liang, X., Lai, K., Li, X. et al. U-shaped relationship of estimated glucose disposal rate with cardiovascular disease risk in cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0–3: a population-based prospective study. Diabetol Metab Syndr 17, 85 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13098-025-01659-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13098-025-01659-y